Policy Analysis Market

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Vision •Context •Planning Process •Theory •َUncertainty •Economic Development •
Posted by Rezwan • Apr 26, 2009 • (0) Comments •
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What will they think of next? "The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), part of the FutureMAP project, was a proposed futures exchange developed by the United States' Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)"

PAM was to be a "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of futures contracts based on possible political developments in several Middle Eastern countries. The theory behind such a market is that the monetary value of a futures contract on an event reflects the probability that that event will actually occur, since a market's actors rationally bid a contract either up or down based on reliable information. One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the University of Iowa, which has allegedly proven more accurate in predicting the outcomes of U.S. elections than either opinion polls or political pundits. PAM was also inspired by the work of George Mason University economist Robin Hanson.

CNN reported the program would be relaunched by the private firm, Net Exchange, which helped create it, but that the newer version "will not include any securities based on forecasts of violent events such as assassinations or terror attacks". [9] On June 11, 2007, Popular Science launched a similar program, known as the Popsci Predictions Exchange. Another project was the 'American Action Market' announced by Tad Hirsh of the MIT Media Lab in 2003, which would permit for-profit betting on major events.

There are now commercial policy analysis markets, such as Intrade, which offers futures on events such as the capture of Osama bin Laden, the U.S. Presidential Election, and the bombing of Iran.

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